The Party System in Spain and Its Indicators: A Review from The Transition to The Present Day

Abstract

The aim is to analyze the main indicators of the party system in order to define the whole from its different explanatory elements. The objective is to update the academic information based on the study of the main single-member indicators, thus characterizing the Spanish party system up to the XIV legislature. After the construction of an electoral matrix in SPSS, the data are introduced into the formulas and functions of the indicators, under the descriptive statistics method. For the forecasts, the linear regression technique, inserted in inferential statistics, will be used. The foundational stage is defined by a very high electoral concentration index, low fragmentation, only two as a result of the NEP and volatility between blocks. From 2015 onwards, the concentration index reaches historic lows. Counterintuitively, electoral competitiveness declines from 2016 onwards, with fragmentation increasing to 0.88/1.  Looking ahead, the data show an electoral evolution favorable to the left, accompanied by a new crystallization of voters into ideological poles. At the same time, there is an increase in intra-bloc volatility close to 25%. These results indicate that electoral competition will take place within each of the main ideological spaces.